Robotaxis, Risk Rolls, and the $4T Milestone: Staying the Course with Calm Conviction

Relax to Rich | Week 28 Recap (Ending July 11, 2025)

💡 Investing Doesn’t Have to Be Complicated
Hi friends,

R2R is grounded in timeless principles:
✅ Stay patient
✅ Focus on high-quality assets
✅ Use options wisely
✅ Let time and compounding do the heavy lifting

Each week, I document the journey—trades, risks, market headlines, and lessons learned. If your goal is to grow wealth with calm confidence, you’re in the right place.

This week was all about balance—managing risk, watching execution, and tuning out political noise. Tesla’s long-term thesis remains tied to autonomy and innovation. NVIDIA continues to ride AI tailwinds. Tencent’s AI push reinforces my conviction.

📌 Weekly Activity

No new positions this week, but I did manage risk by rolling NVDA and QQQ calls, downsizing the QQQ and NVDA puts and trimming some TSLA puts. It’s all about controlling cash flow and staying balanced.

📈 Performance Snapshot

(From Sept 28, 2022, through July 11, 2025)

Period	R2R Return	Nasdaq 100	S&P 500	Net Value	Duration/Year
9/28/2022-12/31/2022	12.38%	-2.70%	5.27%	1.12	0.26
2023	37.74%	55.13%	24.23%	1.55	1
2024	77.91%	25.88%	23.31%	2.75	1
7/11/2025	3.61%	8.85%	6.43%	2.85	0.53
Total Return	185.34%	106.83%	71.63%		2.78
Annualized Return	45.74%	29.83%	21.42%

Measured using Time-Weighted Return (TWR). Starting NAV: 1.00. Current NAV: 2.85

💼 Current Portfolio Holdings

Rank	Holding	Weight*	Close Price	YTD Return
1	Tesla （TSLA）	42%	313.51	-22.37%
2	QQQ	13%	554.20	8.41%
3	Tencent (700.HK)	15%	HKD 496.60	19.09%
4	Nvidia (NVDA)	3%	164.92	22.81%
5	Others	6%
6	Cash Equivalents	21%
7	SPX	-48%	6259.75	6.43%

💬 Weight includes delta-adjusted stock + options exposure.
Curious about “delta” or “cash equivalents”? Drop me a message—I’ll happily explain.

🔍 Key Events This Week

🚗 Tesla (TSLA)

📌 1. Robotaxi Program Expansion and Grok AI Integration Updates

On Thursday, July 10, it was announced that Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, will expand its operational area this weekend. This marks the first expansion of the geofenced service area since its launch. Separately, reports this week indicate Tesla has filed for permits to operate its Robotaxi service in Phoenix, Arizona, and has posted job openings for “Vehicle Operators” in several states, including California, Nevada, and Florida, suggesting a multi-city expansion strategy is in motion.

Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla’s Grok AI chatbot will be integrated into Tesla vehicles, with rollout expected as early as next week. The integration will require a Premium Connectivity subscription.

👉 My Take:

The expansion of the Robotaxi pilot, even if geographically limited, is a necessary step in validating the technology and business model. Moving from a static test to an expanding service area demonstrates operational progress. My analysis of the long-term investment case for Tesla heavily weighs the success of its autonomy initiatives. The key variable is the timeline to a large-scale, driverless service, which represents a potential source of high-margin, recurring revenue. The move to seek permits in other states is an early, but important, indicator of the company’s ambition to scale this service. I will be monitoring regulatory responses and the safety data from these expanded operations.

Integrating Grok AI and expanding robotaxi services are in line with Tesla’s push into autonomous driving and in-car software monetization. These initiatives could support future revenue streams and help differentiate Tesla’s offerings, but execution risks and regulatory hurdles remain.

📌 2. Imminent Changes to U.S. Federal EV Tax Credits

A new federal law, signed on July 4, 2025, will eliminate the current electric vehicle tax credits of up to $7,500 for new vehicles after September 30, 2025. There is no phase-out period, and the credit will be completely removed for vehicles purchased on or after October 1, 2025.

👉 My Take:

The removal of the federal EV tax credit is a significant external factor that will affect the entire U.S. EV market. For Tesla, this creates a near-term demand incentive as potential buyers may look to purchase before the deadline. My analysis must now account for a potential pull-forward of sales into the third quarter, followed by a possible slowdown in Q4 and into 2026. This change in government incentives makes the competitive landscape even more critical. The ability to control costs and potentially adjust pricing will be a key factor in maintaining demand in a market without this long-standing purchase incentive. The impact will likely be more pronounced on lower-margin vehicle variants.

📌 3. Elon Musk Launches “America Party,” a New Political Third Party

On July 5, 2025, Elon Musk officially announced the formation of a new political third party named the America Party. The platform emphasizes fiscal conservatism, national debt reduction, deregulation, pro-natal policies, and military modernization through AI. Musk positioned the party as an alternative to what he called a “uniparty” system in U.S. politics.

Following the announcement:

• Tesla stock dropped nearly 7% in a single trading day, losing tens of billions in market capitalization.
• Investment firms, including Azoria, delayed Tesla-related ETF products, citing concerns over Musk’s political distraction.
• Analysts from Wedbush and William Blair expressed concerns that Musk’s political ambitions may conflict with his role as CEO of Tesla.
• The party is not yet registered with the FEC and faces significant logistical barriers in gaining electoral traction.

👉 My Take:

Short term, this is noise with real cost. Tesla is in an execution-heavy phase—Cybertruck scale-up, FSD rollout, and the Robotaxi platform—all of which require Musk’s full attention. Political moonshots dilute that focus. The 7% drop in market cap wasn’t just about sentiment; it was about perceived leadership risk. If Musk spreads himself too thin, Tesla’s strategic tempo slows—and that undermines key parts of the investment thesis.

But long term, I’m watching this differently. If the America Party gains even marginal traction, it may give Musk political leverage that translates into bargaining power—whether in regulatory discussions, autonomous vehicle policy, or broader industrial strategy. He’s playing a game of optionality, and while risky, it could pay off in influence.

In the meantime, I’m staying grounded in execution. Tesla’s value depends on results, not rhetoric. But I’m not ignoring the broader chessboard either. We wait and see.

🌐 QQQ

📌 1. AI and M&A Activity Drive Sector-Specific Moves

While the broader index was quiet, there were notable developments within the technology sector. Several large-cap software and service companies saw increased investor interest following the announcement on Monday that global IT firm Capgemini would acquire the business process services firm WNS. Separately, news continued to circulate about the practical applications of Artificial Intelligence, with Google announcing the broader rollout of its “AI Mode” in Google Search in new markets. The semiconductor sub-sector, a significant portion of the index, saw mixed performance as investors weigh sustained demand for AI chips against potential shifts in enterprise spending.

👉 My Take:

This week highlights a key theme: the market is differentiating between broad economic concerns and specific, long-term growth narratives. The continued focus on AI, both in terms of software application and the underlying hardware, remains a primary driver of valuation for many of the index’s largest components. The acquisition activity is also a significant indicator. It suggests that well-capitalized companies are using their cash to acquire strategic assets and expertise, which can be a sign of perceived value and a driver of future growth. My analysis will continue to focus on how these individual company and sub-sector developments contribute to the overall earnings growth potential of the NASDAQ 100, especially in a period of macroeconomic uncertainty.

🐉 Tencent (700.HK)

📌 1. Tencent Introduces Hunyuan3D-PolyGen Model

On July 7, 2025, Tencent announced the release of Hunyuan3D-PolyGen, an upgraded 3D generative AI model designed for professional art pipelines, featuring advanced mesh topology for game development. The announcement was made via the Hunyuan X account.

👉 My Take:

The launch of Hunyuan3D-PolyGen strengthens Tencent’s position in AI-driven content creation, particularly for its gaming division, which accounts for a significant portion of revenue. By addressing bottlenecks in 3D asset creation, the model could improve efficiency for Tencent’s game studios and attract third-party developers, potentially expanding its ecosystem. This aligns with the investment thesis of leveraging AI to maintain leadership in gaming and digital content. However, the impact on valuation depends on adoption rates and monetization, which remain uncertain. Competitive pressures in the AI space, especially from Western firms, could challenge Tencent’s ability to differentiate, affecting future growth prospects.

💻 NVIDIA (NVDA)

📌 1.Surpassing the $4 Trillion Market Capitalization

On Wednesday, July 9, NVIDIA’s stock price increased, causing its market capitalization to briefly surpass $4 trillion, a first for any publicly traded company. The stock continued its strong performance throughout the week, closing on Friday, July 11, at an all-time high of $164.92. This milestone established NVIDIA as the world’s most valuable public company, ahead of both Microsoft and Apple.

👉 My Take:

Reaching a $4 trillion valuation is a significant market signal. My analysis treats this less as a finish line and more as a reflection of the market’s current expectations for future earnings growth, which are substantial. The core investment thesis now rests on the company’s ability to meet, and exceed, these very high expectations. The primary driver remains the demand for its data center GPUs, fueled by the build-out of AI infrastructure. My focus is on tracking the adoption rate and pricing power of the new Blackwell platform, as its success is fundamental to justifying and potentially expanding upon this valuation.

That’s all for this week. Until next time—stay invested, stay relaxed.
—William | Relax to Rich Club

#RelaxToRich #ValueInvesting #OptionsWithPurpose

⚠️ Disclaimer

I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information shared here reflects my personal investment decisions and opinions only. This content is for informational and educational purposes and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risks, including the potential loss of capital.