💡 The Big Idea
Listen, valuation is like a trusty map 🗺️ when you’re hiking — it helps you avoid getting totally lost, but it’s not going to tell you exactly where every pebble on the trail is.
As a value investor (that’s what you’re aiming for, right? 😎), your goal isn’t to crunch numbers until you find the “perfect” stock price. Nah — it’s about making sure you don’t overpay 💸 for a company and then giving yourself enough time for a great business to work its magic 🪄.
The best investments don’t come from a calculator — they come from using your noggin 🧠, looking at the bigger picture 🌍, and being patient ⏳.
🧰 The Main Ways to Figure Out a Company’s Value
Here’s the toolbox 🔧 that value investors like us use to size up a company. Don’t worry, I’ll keep it light!
A. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
📉 What’s that? You guess how much money 💵 the company will make in the future, then “discount” it back to today’s value using a rate that reflects how risky it is.
📣 Buffett’s Take: He calls this the “gold standard” ✨ — but only if you’re super careful with your guesses. Don’t go dreaming up crazy numbers!
B. Earnings Multiples (Like P/E or EV/EBITDA)
🔢 What’s that? You look at the price of the stock compared to how much profit it makes. For example, a P/E of 10 means you’re paying $10 for every $1 of profit. Pretty straightforward, right?
⚠️ Watch out! Use “normal” profits — don’t get fooled by a random good (or bad) year 📊.
C. Book Value
🏦 What’s that? It’s just the company’s assets minus what it owes.
✅ When’s it useful? Works best for companies with lots of “stuff,” like banks or real estate firms 🏢🏘️.
📉 Heads-up: For tech companies or brand-heavy businesses, book value might not mean much. Their value is in their ideas, not their stuff 💡.
D. Comparable Companies (Relative Valuation)
👥 What’s that? You compare the company to similar ones in the same industry.
🚨 Heads-up: This is great for a quick check ✅, but if the whole industry is overpriced 💥, you’re just comparing expensive apples to expensive oranges 🍎🍊.
🤷♂️ What’s Valuation Really For, Anyway?
Valuation answers one simple question: 👉 Am I paying a fair price for this company, considering what it could do in the long run and what could go wrong?
It’s not about getting a magic number 🎩 that’s 100% right. It’s more like a gut check 💭.
If you’re pulling out a spreadsheet 📊 and squinting at tiny numbers just to convince yourself a stock is “cheap,” it’s probably not cheap enough.
✅ The best deals are obvious — you won’t need a calculator to see them.
🚀 Why You Can’t Just Rely on Math to Find Amazing Investments
Here’s a little secret 🤫: the stocks that make you rich 💰 — like the ones that go up 10x or 50x — aren’t found by crunching numbers.
They’re found by spotting greatness 🌟 that’s hard to measure, like:
- 🛡️ Does the company have a big edge over its competitors?
- 🧠 Are the people running it smart and honest?
- 📈 Can the business grow big-time without falling apart?
These things don’t fit neatly into a spreadsheet — but they’re what make the real money over time 💹.
🧘 Valuation Keeps You Sane — It’s Not About Being Perfect
Think of valuation like checking the weather before hiking ⛰️🌦️. You don’t need to know the exact temperature every minute — you just want to make sure you’re not walking into a thunderstorm ⛈️!
You don’t have to be exactly right about a company’s value — just roughly right, with enough wiggle room (that’s called a margin of safety 🛟) to keep you safe if things go sideways.
That way, you’re not sweating bullets 😰 over every little dip in the stock price 📉.
🛠️ How to Use Valuation the Easy, Relaxed Way
Let’s break this down into steps even a newbie 🐣 like you can follow. I call this the “Relax to Rich” method — cute, right? 😄
✅ Step 1: Get to Know the Business
- What does the company actually do? 🏭
- How does it make its money? 💰
- What could mess it up? (Think competitors, lawsuits, or world changes 🌪️)
✅ Step 2: Use Valuation as a Quick Reality Check
- Focus on what the company can earn over the long term 📅
- Ask: Does the price I’m paying make sense for how good this company is?
- Don’t just compare it to others — compare it to its own quality 🧬
✅ Step 3: Think About What Could Go Wrong
- Do I have enough cushion (margin of safety 🛡️) if things go south?
- If the market shut down for 3 years, would I still feel okay holding this? 🤔
✅ Step 4: Don’t Sell Just Because It’s “A Little Pricey”
Great companies don’t often get crazy expensive 🚀. If you sell too early, you might miss the best part — when the stock keeps climbing 📈 year after year.
Hold onto the good ones! 🙌
🙅♂️ Don’t Fall for These Traps
- ❌ Don’t obsess over tiny details in your calculations
- ❌ Don’t trust your spreadsheet too much — numbers can lie 🤥
- ❌ Don’t sell a fantastic company just because it looks “a bit expensive”
🎯 One Last Thing to Remember
Valuation is just a tool — it’s not the boss of you 🧰👨💼. Use it to keep yourself safe 🔒, but don’t pretend it can predict the future 🔮.
The real way to grow wealth is simple:
Find awesome companies 🏆, buy them at a decent price 💵, and let time ⏳ + quality 💎 + patience 🧘 do the rest.
Investing isn’t about being the smartest in the room 🧠 — it’s about being the calmest, most consistent, and most relaxed 😌.
That’s how you go from Relax ➡️ Rich.
🗨️ So, what do you think? Ready to start looking for some great companies without stressing too much about the numbers? Let me know — I’m here to help! 💬